Most punters have a very selective memory. They tend to recall all the good wins but rarely discuss the many losses in between. Essentially if you are not recording your bets it’s because you don’t really want to face the fact that you are probably losing money. Here are some facts you need to consider if you are serious about making a profit and winning long-term.
Unrealistic expectations
Expecting to win in excess of 15% on turnover long term on a high volume of bets is totally unrealistic. Argue the point as much as you like (as I did when I was in my 20’s) but it is a fact. Of course there will be periods when you will have big wins and exceed these limits, but there will also be other periods where you will lose. Expecting to make more than 20% on turnover would mean that you were (a) being very selective and not turning over many bets; or (b) delusional; or (c) one of the most successful punters the world has ever seen.
Few punters realise that as professional punters we actually operate on 10% or less POT and that some of Australia’s biggest and most high profile professionals make less than 5% on (albeit high) turnover. The difference in profit percentages isn’t because one punter is twice as good as the other, but more likely it is because the two are experiencing differing levels of variance and possibly betting on many more (or many fewer) events. Either way, the turnover is very high and that is where the dollars are made. Essentially 10-15% profit on turnover is achievable and realistic with a disciplined and methodical approach to your punting.
So the reality is if you are making 10% POT and want to profit $25,000 per year, then you need to turn over a minimum of $250,000 per year. If you bet say five days per week then your will need to turn over approximately $1000 per day.
In the following articles we will discuss five other key factors in becoming a long-term winner:
2. You will experience losing periods
3. Probability will affect your bank
4. Understanding market percentages
5. Discipline is the key
6. Betting with ratings