How do I pick more winners?

Our ratings system is based on identifying the best horse in each race, under the assumption that each horse will have a “fair” chance of winning. But occasionally we face circumstances we don’t expect including changing weather conditions (rain or wind), a biased track, jockey changes, unfavourable race maps or even scratchings.

To better identify which races to bet on and pick more winners, we suggest:

1)  Make sure track conditions suit the horse you are looking at betting on;

2)  Avoid (or adjust) your betting to account for biased tracks or changing weather conditions;

3)  Consider the race map and if it suits your horses racing style

4)  Be confident that the barrier draw benefits your horse

What you are looking for is the above factors to benefit your horse – this is Step 1.

Step 2 is to consider how these factors impact the other horses in the race. To get the biggest betting edge each time you bet, you want to be betting on horses that the conditions advantage more than its competitors (or even better, conditions disadvantage the other horses).

Even if it is the best horse in the race, if you’re not confident that your horse doesn’t have the advantage, don’t force a bet. Only betting in circumstances that are in your favour is the key to making a profit over the long term.